From Crisis to Surplus: A National Transformation
Just two or three years ago, Pakistan faced a severe energy crisis. Nationwide blackouts forced factories to shut down, while millions of citizens regularly relied on candles after dark. Fearing supply disruptions, the government urgently signed long-term natural gas contracts to keep the lights on.
Now, the situation has completely reversed. Pakistan finds itself with more natural gas than it can use—and the driving force behind this shift is a renewable energy explosion.
The Solar Power Surge: More Than Tripling in a Year
Recent data reveals an extraordinary leap in solar capacity. Pakistan’s installed solar power surged from just 1.3 gigawatts in mid-2023 to 4.1 gigawatts by the end of 2024—more than tripling in over a year.
A key driver has been the industrial and commercial sector. Companies quickly realized that installing solar panels was far cheaper than relying on natural gas for electricity. As a result, they installed over 3 gigawatts of solar capacity themselves—with many opting to go completely off-grid.
The China-Pakistan Partnership: Accelerating the Transition
Behind this solar boom has been a steady flow of Chinese capital and technology. Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), nine energy projects totaling 5,320 megawatts have already been completed—six of which are renewable energy installations.
This collaboration has dramatically accelerated Pakistan’s energy transition. Although the country previously set a 2030 target of 60% renewable energy, few expected progress this rapid.
New Challenges: Grid Instability and the “Duck Curve”
With solar module prices plummeting—largely due to a flood of Chinese-made PV panels—and lithium battery costs falling, households can now recoup their solar investments within just two to three years.
However, success has brought new challenges. Pakistan’s grid now struggles with a “duck curve” phenomenon: solar overproduction during the day followed by an evening demand spike. Compounding the issue, the country’s aging transmission system suffers from a line loss rate of 16%—compared to just 4.37% in China.
Looking Ahead: Building a Resilient Energy Future
Pakistan’s energy landscape is transforming at a pace that few predicted. While the rapid solar expansion has resolved one crisis, it now demands a new focus on modernizing grid infrastructure and managing intermittent supply.
The partnership with China continues to play a vital role—not only in expanding generation capacity but in shaping a more sustainable and resilient power system for Pakistan’s future.
